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AAW Mid-Year 2012
Fruits, Vegetables & Specialty Crops
Fruits, Vegetables and Speciality Crops
Kim Schmuhl - kschmuhl@pointowoods.com
American AgriWomen
Fruits Vegetables and Specialty Crops Report
By Colby Willoughby
October 4, 2009
Summer Acreage Down Slightly
This summer (largely July-September), area for harvest of 12 selected fresh-market vegetables
(including nonstorage bulb onions) is forecast to decline 1 percent from a year ago to 282,800
acres. Increased area for snap beans, carrots, and sweet corn was more than offset by
reductions for head lettuce, cauliflower, and summer nonstorage onions. Reduced summer area
follows declines in both the winter (down 5 percent) and spring (down 4 percent) vegetable
seasons. While summer acreage was only down slightly, the cool weather which has persisted in
many areas has slowed crop maturity but has generally been beneficial for quality and yields.
Assuming average weather, shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables (which rose 8
percent last summer), are currently expected to average 2 to 7 percent below a year earlier
during the 2009 summer quarter.
Vegetables and Melons Outlook
With a record-large processing tomato crop anticipated and assuming yields for other processing
vegetables at least match the average of the past 3 years, output of the five leading processing
vegetables could approach the 1999 record high of 19.2 million short tons – about a tenth above
last year’s strong production. As a result, some easing of processed vegetable wholesale prices
is anticipated this fall. In July, wholesale prices for canned vegetables (including juices) were
running 13 percent above a year ago, while frozen vegetables were selling for 14 percent more.
The 2009 fall potato crop is expected to remain near the 376 million hundredweight (cwt) of a
year earlier. Although supplies will likely tighten going into next year, prices received by U.S.
potato growers are expected to average below a year earlier during the 2009/10 season. In
2008/09, the preliminary nominal dollar marketing year average price for all potatoes was a
record high $9.46 per cwt – up 26 percent from the prior year.
Despite prospects for reduced dry bean supplies in the year ahead, continued sluggish
foodservice demand, potentially slower export movement, and a general easing of field crop
prices will likely place downward pressure on dry bean prices in 2010. Assuming favorable
weather, prices for most classes of dry beans are expected to average below the very strong
levels of 2008/09.
The weak economy, sluggish foodservice demand, and overall lower discretionary spending has
led to declining harvested acreage and stocks of fresh and dried herbs and spices. Economic
Research Service estimates that 80,000 acres of herbs and spices will be grown in 2010, a 27-
percent decline from the previous year.
This summer, area for harvest of the three leading melon crops was estimated to be 87,900
acres – slightly less than a year earlier. Area is expected to be down for watermelon and
honeydews but a bit higher for cantaloupe.
According to USDA estimates, projected harvested area for dry peas is down 1 percent from a
year earlier, while lentil harvested area is expected to jump 52 percent. Although carryover
stocks are low and export demand good, dry pea and lentil prices are expected to average below
their 2008/09 levels.
Mushrooms: Intended agaricus bed and tray production area for the 2009/10 season is forecast
to rise slightly from a year earlier to 135 million square feet. Assuming average yields, 2009/10
mushroom output could also increase slightly.
Quantity of Grapes to be Crushed for Wine up Slightly
In light of the forecast higher wine grape production in California and Washington, total grapes
crushed for wine in the United States is anticipated to increase in 2009/10, likely putting
downward pressure on overall grower prices for grapes sold to wineries this season.
Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook
The index of prices received by fruit and tree nut growers slipped 7 percent between July and
August. Driving down the index from the previous month were grower price declines for freshmarket
grapes and pears. The lower prices for fresh-market grapes and pears, along with those
for fresh-market applies, strawberries, and lemons were behind the weak August 2009 grower
price index relative to the same time last year. Table grape supplies were in abundance in
August as harvest in California was well underway.
In August, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Services’ (NASS) initial forecast for the 2009
U.S. apple crop was set at 10.1 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last year and the biggest crop
of the last 4 years. Pear crop was forecasted to be 1.87 billion pounds, 7 percent larger than in
2008 and bigger than any crop since 2001. The 2009 U.S. grape crop is forecast by NASS at
14.1 billion pounds, 4 percent smaller than a year ago. NASS forecast this year’s U.S. cranberry
crop to total 709 million pounds, 10 percent below the record crop in 2008. NASS has released
its first estimate for the 2009/10 CA navel orange crop, forecasting production at 1.5 million tons,
16 percent higher than last season’s crop estimate of 1.3 million tons.
California’s 2009 Walnut crop is forecasted down from last year at 415,000 tons, down 5 percent
from last year’s record crop of 436,000 tons. The preliminary forecast for Oregon’s 2009
hazelnut crop is 38,000 tons, 19 percent higher than last year and 3 percent higher than in 2007.
March 27, 2009
Domestic Raisin Production Likely to Decline
Following two back-to-back bumper crops, the California raisin grape crop for the 2009/10
season is forecast to be down 16 percent, strongly suggesting a decline in U.S. raisin production
This season will be the second year of the three-year agreement between the Raisin Bargaining
Association and the region’s packers for a minimum price growers were to receive for their
grapes. September 29, 2009
Ample Supplies Boost Exports of U.S. Cherries
Despite a slow start to this year’s U.S. cherry export season, export volume in 2009 through July
were up 39 percent from the same time last year, reflecting strong shipments in June and July.
Quality of this year’s crop was reported as very good, in general, thus aiding demand. More than
60 percent of the shipments went to Canada and Japan.
Fruits Vegetables and Specialty Crops Report
By Colby Willoughby
October 4, 2009
Summer Acreage Down Slightly
This summer (largely July-September), area for harvest of 12 selected fresh-market vegetables
(including nonstorage bulb onions) is forecast to decline 1 percent from a year ago to 282,800
acres. Increased area for snap beans, carrots, and sweet corn was more than offset by
reductions for head lettuce, cauliflower, and summer nonstorage onions. Reduced summer area
follows declines in both the winter (down 5 percent) and spring (down 4 percent) vegetable
seasons. While summer acreage was only down slightly, the cool weather which has persisted in
many areas has slowed crop maturity but has generally been beneficial for quality and yields.
Assuming average weather, shipping-point prices for fresh-market vegetables (which rose 8
percent last summer), are currently expected to average 2 to 7 percent below a year earlier
during the 2009 summer quarter.
Vegetables and Melons Outlook
With a record-large processing tomato crop anticipated and assuming yields for other processing
vegetables at least match the average of the past 3 years, output of the five leading processing
vegetables could approach the 1999 record high of 19.2 million short tons – about a tenth above
last year’s strong production. As a result, some easing of processed vegetable wholesale prices
is anticipated this fall. In July, wholesale prices for canned vegetables (including juices) were
running 13 percent above a year ago, while frozen vegetables were selling for 14 percent more.
The 2009 fall potato crop is expected to remain near the 376 million hundredweight (cwt) of a
year earlier. Although supplies will likely tighten going into next year, prices received by U.S.
potato growers are expected to average below a year earlier during the 2009/10 season. In
2008/09, the preliminary nominal dollar marketing year average price for all potatoes was a
record high $9.46 per cwt – up 26 percent from the prior year.
Despite prospects for reduced dry bean supplies in the year ahead, continued sluggish
foodservice demand, potentially slower export movement, and a general easing of field crop
prices will likely place downward pressure on dry bean prices in 2010. Assuming favorable
weather, prices for most classes of dry beans are expected to average below the very strong
levels of 2008/09.
The weak economy, sluggish foodservice demand, and overall lower discretionary spending has
led to declining harvested acreage and stocks of fresh and dried herbs and spices. Economic
Research Service estimates that 80,000 acres of herbs and spices will be grown in 2010, a 27-
percent decline from the previous year.
This summer, area for harvest of the three leading melon crops was estimated to be 87,900
acres – slightly less than a year earlier. Area is expected to be down for watermelon and
honeydews but a bit higher for cantaloupe.
According to USDA estimates, projected harvested area for dry peas is down 1 percent from a
year earlier, while lentil harvested area is expected to jump 52 percent. Although carryover
stocks are low and export demand good, dry pea and lentil prices are expected to average below
their 2008/09 levels.
Mushrooms: Intended agaricus bed and tray production area for the 2009/10 season is forecast
to rise slightly from a year earlier to 135 million square feet. Assuming average yields, 2009/10
mushroom output could also increase slightly.
Quantity of Grapes to be Crushed for Wine up Slightly
In light of the forecast higher wine grape production in California and Washington, total grapes
crushed for wine in the United States is anticipated to increase in 2009/10, likely putting
downward pressure on overall grower prices for grapes sold to wineries this season.
Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook
The index of prices received by fruit and tree nut growers slipped 7 percent between July and
August. Driving down the index from the previous month were grower price declines for freshmarket
grapes and pears. The lower prices for fresh-market grapes and pears, along with those
for fresh-market applies, strawberries, and lemons were behind the weak August 2009 grower
price index relative to the same time last year. Table grape supplies were in abundance in
August as harvest in California was well underway.
In August, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Services’ (NASS) initial forecast for the 2009
U.S. apple crop was set at 10.1 billion pounds, up 4 percent from last year and the biggest crop
of the last 4 years. Pear crop was forecasted to be 1.87 billion pounds, 7 percent larger than in
2008 and bigger than any crop since 2001. The 2009 U.S. grape crop is forecast by NASS at
14.1 billion pounds, 4 percent smaller than a year ago. NASS forecast this year’s U.S. cranberry
crop to total 709 million pounds, 10 percent below the record crop in 2008. NASS has released
its first estimate for the 2009/10 CA navel orange crop, forecasting production at 1.5 million tons,
16 percent higher than last season’s crop estimate of 1.3 million tons.
California’s 2009 Walnut crop is forecasted down from last year at 415,000 tons, down 5 percent
from last year’s record crop of 436,000 tons. The preliminary forecast for Oregon’s 2009
hazelnut crop is 38,000 tons, 19 percent higher than last year and 3 percent higher than in 2007.
March 27, 2009
Domestic Raisin Production Likely to Decline
Following two back-to-back bumper crops, the California raisin grape crop for the 2009/10
season is forecast to be down 16 percent, strongly suggesting a decline in U.S. raisin production
This season will be the second year of the three-year agreement between the Raisin Bargaining
Association and the region’s packers for a minimum price growers were to receive for their
grapes. September 29, 2009
Ample Supplies Boost Exports of U.S. Cherries
Despite a slow start to this year’s U.S. cherry export season, export volume in 2009 through July
were up 39 percent from the same time last year, reflecting strong shipments in June and July.
Quality of this year’s crop was reported as very good, in general, thus aiding demand. More than
60 percent of the shipments went to Canada and Japan.
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